Three time Slam winner and world number one Iga Swiatek will be the heavy favourite going into this final. Her opponent is the unheralded unseeded Czech Karolina Muchova, who has only one career title to her name, has been underwhelming in the Slams, but these past two weeks in Paris has played the best tennis of her life.
Why Muchova will win
The question for Muchova is what does she have left in the tank after that 3hr 13min semi win over Sabalenka. If the 26 year old is not fatigued mentally or physically then this will be a match. Variety and more variety is Muchova’s strength, she plays hardcourt tennis on a claycourt, with slice backhands, forays into the net and delicate lobs. If she gets the mix right, she’s capable of winning this match.
Why Swiatek will win
Iga hasn’t lost a set this tournament; her overall record in Paris is 24-1 with two French Opens already. I’m sure she was happy to see Sabalenka lose that semi as the Russian had the potential to outhit her, something Muchova can’t do. Clay is her preferred surface, she’s super confident, and she has big match experience. If the Polish 23 year old keeps her level she’ll win.
Muchova actually leads the head to head 1-0 but that match was four years ago and Swiatek is light years from the player she was. If Muchova keeps it close in the first set, perhaps even winning it, the crowd will become a factor as they’ll cheer for the underdog but Muchova will have to play the match of her career to make that happen.
Even if Muchova gets her variety mix right for a set, I doubt she can do it for the whole match whereas the level of Swiatek she’ll be able to sustain longer.
Swiatek to win in 3 sets.