French Open champion and world number one Iga Swiatek from Poland will take on the Tunisian shot maker Ons Jabeur. They have split their previous four matches with Swiatek winning their last match in Rome this season in straight sets on the clay. This final on hard court will be different though, as the quick New York courts should suit Jabeur, either way its shaping up as a contrast in styles barn burner.
Why Swiatek will win
Return of serve and playing defense is the bread and butter of Iga’s game, it’s literally impossible to get a ball past her, the flexibility she shows in tracking down rally balls rivals Novak, but the 21 year old can also play offense, as evidenced by the slug fest with Sabalenka in the semi’s. If Ons struggles to hold serve throughout this final eventually the pressure Iga will pile on will be too much and Swiatek will win.
Why Ons will win
Nobody quite plays like Jabeur, the slices, drop shots, pinpoint lobs, and anticipation at net is a throwback to grass court tennis of the 60’s and she’ll need all this variety. Swiatek loves it in her strike zone and Jabeur is the player to throw in enough mixes to make her uncomfortable and with these lower bouncing courts Ons can add to the already 154 winners she’s hit in New York.
The Jabeur serve is the key here, she’s hit 34 aces at this tournament and is holding serve 73% of the time, winning those 2 or 3 easy points in service games will allow her to create magic during the rallies, the alternative is scratching and clawing through service games and playing defense which is not her style.
Iga has already won two majors (French Open 20,22) and that means something in these moments, that she can close out big matches. In contrast the loss that Jabeur had at this year’s Wimbledon final shows that she hasn’t won a slam final, which makes it tough to pick her in this type of pressure furnace.
Iga is getting into the form she showed earlier this season when she went on a 37 match win streak and she seems to be controlling the tennis balls she widely criticized earlier in the tournament. The longer this match drags out I’m thinking Iga will eventually take control and win her 3rd Slam. Swiatek in 3 sets.
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Nice analysis. If Ons plays her best and we see the questionable form Iga showed in some of her earlier rounds, it could be Ons in 2… Alternatively if we get in-form Iga, I think she’ll take it for sure. Bring it on!