What great storylines we have here, Serena vying to tie Margaret Courts’ 24 Grand Slam singles tally and Simona Halep trying to win Wimbledon for the first time which would cement her as a superstar in her native Romania.
Serena hasn’t won a tournament since she came back to the tour since giving birth and has lost two Slam finals as well since her comeback, to Kerber at last years’ Wimbledon and to Osaka in that infamous US Open final. Halep is a dismal 1-9 versus Serena, but has lost only one set all tournament, she looks locked in.
Why Serena will win
If she wins this Andy Murray should get a bottle of wine, the extra matches playing with Murray in the mixed doubles has helped Serena get match tough these two weeks, it was court time the 37 year old needed, it has sharpened her groundstrokes and return of serve especially. The third round against Julia Goerges also propelled her for the rest of the tournament, knowing the German was a player who could beat her. Serena has more firepower than Halep, and she’s moving better as the event has progressed, it’s a simple formula, if Serena keeps her footwork going and plays to her level she’ll win.
Why Halep will win
Simona is the kind of player that if she buckles down in the rallies she is very tough to beat, the 27 year old does everything well, her only nemesis is her own mind which can get in the way, in the semi and QF’s Svitolina and Zhang threw everything at her in the first 20 minutes of those matches yet Halep hung tough in the rallies and dominated afterwards, the pressure is on Serena here, she is playing history as much as she’s playing Halep, if Serena blinks Halep will win.
Halep has been in 4 Slam finals, going 1-3, all matches have gone 3 sets, either way Halep has fought to the death, I expect her to do the same here. The surface suits the roadrunner as the grass is playing slow, which means advantage Halep.
With Serena having so much on the line there’s a chance she comes out tight but she’ll fight through it, which means this could be an epic battle, I’m tipping Halep in 3.